09年下半年旅行需求超出预期,7至12月间亚太地区入境游客人数同比增长1%。 在亚太地区所有次区域中,东南亚是2009年唯一保持入境旅游全年增长的地区,全年入境旅游增长1%。其中,缅甸(26%)、马来西亚(7%)、印尼(1%)和柬埔寨(2%)均有上升,而泰国、新加坡和越南的入境旅游分别下降3%、4%和10%。 东北亚地区09年的入境人数下降两个百分点,与08年持平。
该次区域中,日本(-19%)、澳门特别行政区(-5%)和中国大陆(-3%)均有下降;而中国台北(14%)和韩国(14%)的入境旅游显著增长;香港特别行政区有0.3%的微弱涨幅。 受印度下滑3%的拖累,2009年南亚地区国际入境旅游也出现3%的降幅。09年下半年印度入境增长缓慢,而斯里兰卡和尼泊尔的入境旅游却强势反弹。上述两个目的地的入境人数分别增长2%和1%。 太平洋地区09年国际入境游客人数下降2%,主要归因于关岛(-8%)和夏威夷(-4%)两地接待量的大幅下滑。澳大利亚和新西兰的入境接待情况则与08年持平。
美洲地区入境人数下降约6%,降幅位列所有次区域之首。加拿大、美国和墨西哥的入境旅游萎缩,而智利却破纪录地实现了1%的增长。 对此,PATA战略情报中心(PATA SIC)主任林培锋(Kris Lim)指出:“2009年12月亚太地区入境游客人数同比增长4%,记录了最大月度增幅。2009年极具挑战,但从掌握的数据来看并不是表现最差的一年。” 他还补充道:“2003年受非典疫情冲击,亚太地区的入境旅游曾大幅下挫7%。然而,2010年的入境回暖似乎不会复制04年“V”字型的探底反弹走势。随着全球经济持续复苏,目前的情况较6个月前已有很大改观。
国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测,2010年全球经济将增长3.9%,而‘发展中的亚洲’ 则有望以8.4%的增幅领涨。”

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